Oral - UK Climate Change Impact Programme 2009

The UK Climate Projections 2009 were released on 18 June. The projections use the latest cutting-edge science and methodology to help us plan and prepare for climate change. The Met Office Hadley Centre used ground-breaking science to produce the probabilistic projections, combining information from its climate model with results from 12 other international climate models. The projections show a view of what will happen for three emission scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those emission scenarios are as follows: high emissions, based on a fossil-fuel-reliant economy; medium emissions, based on a mix of fossil fuels; and low emissions, based on a higher use of new technologies and renewable fuels.

Current research suggests that we are currently heading towards the medium-emissions scenario, and the findings for that scenario are stark. The key findings for Wales by 2050 are as follows. In summer, daily maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 3.4 degrees centigrade, rainfall is projected to increase in winter on average by 14 per cent and decrease in summer by 16 per cent, sea levels around Wales are predicted to rise by approximately 20 cm, and, in winter, daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5 degrees centigrade.

In broad terms, that means that we are likely to see hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters. On the face of it, these changes might appear to be favourable, but the consequences will affect the way in which we live our lives, impacting on people’s health and wellbeing and creating economic costs, and they will also result in habitat change and the loss of some plants and animal species.

Some climate change is inevitable due to past greenhouse gas emissions and we need to plan and prepare for that, increasing our resilience and minimising our risk. Equally, if we want to limit the severity of climate change in the future, we have to act now by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. 

That reality underpins our approach to developing a climate change strategy. On Thursday, I will launch a consultation, which will set out a programme of action on how Wales will tackle the causes and consequences of climate change. That builds on work already under way.

The impacts of climate change will have consequences for the management of water resources in Wales. Lower rainfall during the summer months means that water levels in Welsh reservoirs may drop lower than at present before they are replenished by winter rainfall. That situation will be exacerbated further as drier, hotter summers increase the demand for water. In many Welsh rivers, flows are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they tend to rise and fall quickly in response to rainfall. The geology of Wales is such that there is relatively little natural storage of water to maintain river flow in drier periods. The strategic policy position statement on water includes a range of measures that will address the impacts of climate change on the availability of water.  

For the land-use sector, climate change brings with it new animal disease risks, such as bluetongue, and new opportunities in terms of alternative enterprises and system changes. Dealing with extreme temperatures, drought, waterlogging and pests will become increasingly important. The Assembly Government has just released its strategy ‘Farming, Food and Countryside—Building a Secure Future’, which highlights the importance of adapting to climate change in farming in relation to land management, animal and plant diseases, managing water resources, reducing flood risk, food production and developing opportunities in business with regard to climate change.

‘Woodlands for Wales’ is the revised Welsh Assembly Government strategy on woodlands, published in 2009. A main theme throughout the strategy is the importance of increasing woodlands’ resistance to the potential effects of climate change. It also highlights the advantages of using woodlands to contribute to flood risk management and of having green spaces in urban areas.

Increased storminess and intense rainfall will exacerbate flood risk and put more pressure on water and sewerage infrastructure. We are already aware of the consequences of extreme weather events, and extreme surface-water flooding, similar to that experienced in England 2007 or the sort of events that we saw much more recently in Rhydyfelin, will become more commonplace. With a partnership of organisations, we have been working to map sources of known historic surface water flood risk and to plan how to manage these risks more effectively. We are also supporting the development of sustainable urban drainage systems to alleviate the pressure on the sewerage network and to help to reduce flood risk.

The public health risks associated with extreme heat and heat wave conditions are significant and include dehydration and hyperthermia, which can, in extreme cases, lead to shock, organ failure and death. In view of the impact that conditions of extreme heat can have on public health and that most illnesses and deaths related to heat waves are preventable through prompt and effective actions, the Welsh Assembly Government has recently consulted on a heat wave plan for Wales. These are just a few examples of the activities that are under way.

Further work using UK Climate Projections 2009 is planned, including a series of training events to be delivered by the UK Climate Impacts Programme. These events will provide expert guidance on how to use the projections in policy and programme development. The projections are the best tool yet to help us to prepare for a future of living with a changing climate. More clearly than ever before, the projections show that we are locked into a certain amount of climate change for the next 30 to 40 years and we will have to adapt to that changing climate. They also starkly illustrate how much worse things might be if we do not act to curb emissions and how critical it is for us to continue our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the potential damage as a result of further climate change in the future.