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Statistics

Local authority population projections

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  • Release date: 20 December 2013
  • Period covered: 2011-based
This report includes information on gender, births, deaths, migration, fertility rates and expectation of life.

Key points

Projected total population

  • For all authorities projected population is higher at mid-2026 based on the ‘high variant’ and lower based on the ‘low variant’ than based on the principal projection.
  • Differences between the ‘high variant’ and principal projection for local authorities are around 1,300 on average, and between the ‘low variant’ and the principal projection around 2,000 at mid-2026.
  • For most authorities projected population at mid-2026 is higher based on the ten-year average migration variant than based on the principal projection, which used a five-year average.

Projected population by age

  • For some authorities there would be an increase in the population aged 0 to 15 between mid-2011 and mid-2026 based on the ‘high variant’, but a decrease if based on the ‘low variant’.
  • The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by mid-2026 for all local authorities based on both the principal projection and the other variants.
  • Similarly the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase by mid-2026 for all local authorities based on both the principal projection and the other variants.

Revision Note

The release was revised on 20 December 2013 to correct a minor error in the ten-year average migration variant projection for each local authority. As a result the overall projected population by local authority is slightly lower than previously published for the ten-year average migration variant. The principal projection and other variant projections are unaffected.

Contact

Tel: 029 2082 1595
Email: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

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