National Population Projections, 2008-Based

Population projections provide estimates of the future population and are based on assumptions about future fertility, life expectancy, international and domestic migration.  This statistical bulletin looks at the 2008-based principal national population projections for Wales, and its main focus is on the period to 2033.

The key points from the latest release are:

• The population of Wales is projected to increase to 3.14 million by 2018 (5 per cent increase) and 3.35 million by 2033 (12 per cent increase). The population is projected to cross the 3 million mark between mid-2009 and mid-2010.
• Although more births than deaths are projected throughout most of the projection period, net inward migration is the main reason for projected population growth.
• The number of children is projected to decrease slightly during the first five years of the projection period, with around 1 per cent less children in 2013 than in 2008.  This is because the projected decrease in the number of older children is greater than the increase in the number of young children during the next few years.  
• The number of pensioners is projected to increase during most of the projection period despite the change to state pension age.  It is projected that there will be 185,000 (29 per cent) more pensioners in 2033 than in 2008.
• The population of Wales will become gradually older with the median age of the population rising from 41.1 years in 2008 to 44.2 years in 2033.

Further information can be found on the StatsWales website.

Contact

Tel: 029 2080 1341
E-mail: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk