Local Authority Population Projections for Wales (2008-based): Local Authority Report

The report presents detailed analyses of the population projections in the form of charts, tables and text for each local authority.

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends, and so the projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

The population projections are based on the revised population and migration estimates, which were released by ONS on May 13th 2010.

Overall Population Change

• Between mid-2008 and mid-2023, it is projected that the majority of local authorities in Wales will experience an increase in their overall population.
• Torfaen’s population is projected to remain roughly the same from mid-2008 to mid-2023.
• Five local authorities are projected to see increases of 10 per cent or more between mid-2008 and mid-2023.
• Cardiff is the local authority projected to have the largest population growth. Its population is projected to increase from 330,500 in mid-2008 to 410,500 in mid-2023 (a 24 per cent increase since mid-2008). This is a reflection of the high net inflows of migrants in recent years.

Fertility Rate and Expectation of Life

• Replacement level fertility (2.08 for England and Wales) represents the approximate number of children per woman needed for the population to replace itself in the long-term given constant mortality rates and the absence of migration.  Over the course of the projection period, 13 local authorities in Wales are projected to see a TFR at or above replacement level fertility for one or more years.
• Across Wales it is projected that expectation of life will increase year on year throughout the whole projection period, and all local authorities are predicted to see continual increases in expectation of life throughout the whole projection period.

Migration

• In each year of the projection period it is projected that the majority (17) of local authorities within Wales will experience more people moving in than moving out.
• Cardiff will see the greatest net inflow of migrants (around 2,400 more people arriving than leaving each year).

Contact

Tel: 029 2082 5058
E-mail: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

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