National Population Projections, 2010-based

Population projections provide estimates of the future population and are based on assumptions about future fertility, life expectancy, international and domestic migration.  This statistical bulletin presents the key results of the 2010-based principal national population projections for Wales, and its main focus is on the period to 2035.

The key points from the latest release are:

• The population of Wales is projected to increase by 5 per cent to 3.17 million by 2020 and 12 per cent to 3.37 million by 2035.
• Although births are projected to exceed deaths, the main driver or population growth in Wales is expected to be net migration.
• The number of children aged under 16 is projected to peak at around 605,000 by 2027 before decreasing slightly between 2027 and 2035.  Overall, the number of children is projected to increase by 7 per cent between 2010 and 2035.
• The number of people aged 16-64 is projected to remain relatively constant throughout the projection period increasing by only 1 per cent between 2010 and 2035 (20,000).
• The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by around 306,000 or 55 per cent between 2010 and 2035.
• In Wales the median age of the population is projected to increase from 41.5 years in 2010 to 43.7 years by 2035.

Further information

StatsWales website.

Contact

Tel: 029 2082 1595
E-mail: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Next update

October 2013 (provisional - to be confirmed on the 'Due Out Soon' page)